Back to Glossary

Discounted Cash Flow

A valuation method that estimates present value of a company's future cash flows.

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

DCF analysis estimates what a business is worth today based on the cash it will generate in the future.

Core concept

A dollar received in the future is worth less than a dollar today due to the time value of money. DCF "discounts" future cash flows back to present value.

Steps

  1. Project future free cash flows for 5–10 years
  2. Estimate a terminal value for cash flows beyond the projection period
  3. Choose a discount rate (typically WACC—weighted average cost of capital)
  4. Sum the present values of all projected cash flows

Formula

PV = CF₁/(1+r)¹ + CF₂/(1+r)² + ... + TV/(1+r)ⁿ

Strengths

  • Based on fundamentals, not market sentiment
  • Forces detailed analysis of the business

Weaknesses

  • Highly sensitive to assumptions (small changes in growth rate or discount rate significantly change the output)
  • Garbage in, garbage out—only as good as your projections

Key Takeaways

  • Context matters when interpreting any financial metric.
  • Combine multiple data points for informed decisions.
  • Continue learning to build investment knowledge.