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Terminal Value

The estimated value of a business beyond the explicit forecast period in a DCF model.

Terminal Value

Terminal value captures the bulk of a company's value in a DCF model—often 60–80% of the total.

Two common methods

Gordon Growth Model

TV = Final Year FCF × (1 + g) ÷ (r − g)

Where g = perpetual growth rate (typically 2–3%) and r = discount rate

Exit Multiple Method

TV = Final Year EBITDA × Industry EV/EBITDA Multiple

Which method to use

  • Gordon Growth: Better for stable, mature companies
  • Exit Multiple: Better when comparable company data is readily available

Common mistakes

  • Using a perpetual growth rate higher than GDP growth (unsustainable)
  • Not cross-checking both methods against each other
  • Ignoring that terminal value dominates the DCF result

Sensitivity

Because terminal value is so large relative to the total, small changes in the growth assumption can dramatically swing your valuation. Always run sensitivity analysis on both the growth rate and discount rate.

Key Takeaways

  • Context matters when interpreting any financial metric.
  • Combine multiple data points for informed decisions.
  • Continue learning to build investment knowledge.